Is Bailey Doomed by Fundraising?

Wednesday, February 03, 2016

Brendan Murray, GoLocalPDX Contributor

Jules Bailey

For weeks Multnomah County Commissioner and mayoral candidate Jules Bailey did not report a dollar in campaign donations after an initial surge. Now, even after more donations have been reported, Bailey is trailing opponent Ted Wheeler mightily, and experts told GoLocal that Bailey’s fundraising problems could doom his campaign.

While Bailey has reported just under $2,000 in campaign contributions since December 15, Wheeler has been raking in donations. In that same time frame, Wheeler has raised tens of thousands. Marc Abrams, former chair of the Democratic Party of Oregon, told GoLocal that he has anticipated an expensive campaign ever since Wheeler first made his announcement.

“Wheeler wants to build an image that he’s coming on strong against a fairly popular incumbent,” Abrams said, noting that Wheeler’s first political victory came against another incumbent, Diane Linn, in the race for Multnomah County Chair. “He’s got a playbook for this, and he knows what he wants to do.

Abrams also said that he does not expect Wheeler to slow down fundraising efforts, even in spite of his wide margin.

“The fundraising machine really doesn’t stop once it gets started,” he said. “It just keeps eating up everything it can, so he's going to keep going and keep raising money.”

What Does it Mean for Bailey?

Abrams said that while he believes that Bailey has time to start his fundraising process, he must do so quickly.

“If he reverses his course pretty quick and starts raising a lot of money next month, then I don’t really think it’s a concern,” Abrams said. “No harm, no foul, as the election is still a fairly long time away. If he waits to get his fundraising into gear, however, I think that could really hurt him.”

Rebecca Tweed agreed she told GoLocal when Bailey announced his campaign that Bailey would have to move quickly in order to compete with months-long front runner Wheeler.

“Because Wheeler has done so well raising money and obtaining endorsements to this point, with no signs of slowing down, Bailey will still need to have a strong outpouring of support from the beginning of his campaign to show that he is taking this seriously, that he is not intimidated by Wheeler’s successes thus far, and that he has the backing necessary to win,” Tweed told GoLocal. “He will need to solidify some key endorsements and raise a lot of capital to show he has significant support in his campaign, right from the start.”

Self-Imposed Limit Hurts

Jules Bailey

Making it even more difficult for Bailey to close the fundraising gap is Bailey’s decision to limit campaign contributions. Bailey told GoLocal he was self-imposing a limit of to $250 during the Mayoral campaign. Horvick said that decision could cost him dearly.

“I think it puts him at a real disadvantage,” John Horvick, vice president and political director for DHM Research, told GoLocal regarding the decision. “I think he’s making it as a philosophical decision and as a tactical decision, but it’s not the norm and it could hurt him.”

Horvick said that the move could especially hurt considering his past contributions from unions. As Golocal reported, Bailey’s past campaigns were powered in large part by donations from labor unions. In place of high-ceiling contributions from labor groups, Bailey will need them to help in more creative ways.

“If the unions can’t contribute financially, they could help on the ground,” Horvick said. “People on the grounds, knocking on doors and sending mailers, things like that. But even still, those all cost money.”

Jim Moore, Director of the Tom McCall Center for Policy Innovation at Pacific University, agreed.

“It means he had better have a strong volunteer base to have a chance in the election,” Moore said. “That has happened before, but Bailey is not nearly as well known as former Mayor Tom Potter, who had a big base of support from his very public role as chief of police.”

Related Slideshow: RACC “In the Garden of Artistic Delights” Fundraising Event

On Saturday evening, August 1st, the Regional Arts & Culture Council (RACC) celebrated its 20th anniversary at a special fundraising event “In the Garden of Artistic Delights.” The event, chaired by Linda McGeady, included intriguing artistic discoveries sprinkled throughout Bella Madrona -- the Gardens of Sampson and Beasley – by RACC-funded artists like David Eckard, Carla Rossi, Anita Menon, Dana Lynn Louis, En Taiko and Wobbly Dance.