How Ted Wheeler Could Unseat Charlie Hales in 2016

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Brendan Murray, GoLocalPDX Contributor

Charlie Hales

For many watching the early movements in the race to be Mayor of Portland in 2016, one question has dominated the conversation: can anyone beat incumbent Charlie Hales?

“Absolutely Charlie Hales can be beat,” Kari Chisholm, a Democratic political consultant and President of Mandate Media, told GoLocal. “I have no doubt in my mind.”

Chisholm said that speculation that Hales may be unstoppable due to incumbency is not enough.

“He struggled to connect with Portlanders in his first term in office,” Chisholm said. “A lot of people feel he has made a number of missteps in the management of the city.”

While no opposition candidates have officially thrown their hat in the ring, many believe that Oregon State Treasurer Ted Wheeler may run and has the best chance to beat Hales.

Could Wheeler Win?

Wheeler and his team have so far been mum on whether he will run for office in 2016, challenge Hales in the mayor's race or face off against another incumbent, Governor Kate Brown.

That has not stopped observers from speculating Wheeler as the best man to unseat Hales. Already, he has drawn interest from local business organizations and unions, who have clashed with Hales during his term.

Jim Moore, chair of the Political Science Department at Pacific State University, told GoLocal that in order to challenge an incumbent like Hales, Wheeler would need to increase his name recognition in Portland.

“Ted Wheeler has to introduce himself to the entire City of Portland,” Moore said. “It's a big city. No one knows who the State Treasurer is...so he has to let people know who he is.”

Moore called the task of defeating Hales an “uphill battle,” describing the incumbent as a “formidable opponent.” He said that in order to come out on top, Wheeler would need to turn an important issue into his calling card.

“He has to come up with an issue that moves voters,” he said. “...It cant just focus on 'I'm a better personality.' He has to come up with some better way of doing anything or some kind of reforms.”

Ted Wheeler

Concerns for the Future

While some believe that economic development could be Wheeler's signature issue, Moore isn't convinced. He said that Hales could match Wheeler “blow-for-blow” in that department.

Instead, Moore said, Wheeler may have to reach out to a population already unsatisfied by Hales' time in office.

“He needs to build coalitions where Hales is weak, and that could be almost anywhere,” he said. “He could reach out to the East Side, who are already very unhappy with Hales. A strong East Side movement could really help Wheeler.”

Chisholm said Hales should challenge the incumbent on his plans for the future, as many in Portland are wary of a changing landscape in the city.

“Residents are concerned about the future,” he said. “Things are growing fast, and things are changing fast. In many ways, its a good thing, but in many other ways people are troubled by it.”

There is a long way to go before ballots are cast, Chisholm pointed out, and no issues are set in stone as of yet. Still, the immediate future of the city will play an important role in the election's outcome.

“The election will be about addressing people's concerns about the future of Portland,” Chisholm said of the race for the mayor's office in 2016. “Their concerns about the physical environment of the city, shifts in socioeconomic and racial make up of the city, their concerns about the way or schools have gone from bust to boom and about affordability in the city.”

Competing Visions

Most likely, Chisholm said, no one issue will come to be the central factor in next year's election. Instead, it will be decided by voters who look at the big-picture future of their city.

“In the end, what this is going to come down to is each candidate's idea for the future of Portland,” he said. “Which vision for the future that the voters think is best.”

Moore agreed.

“It could include something like the way Charlie Hales has not been able to find a way to pay for street repairs," he said. “If Wheeler came up with an idea and said 'here is my plan to do that,' I think it would have a big impact.”

Related Slideshow: Charlie Hales’s Top 15 Donors

Portland's mayoral election is still over a year away, but that hasn't stopped incumbent mayor Charlie Hales from launching his campaign. Thus far, Hales has raised over $88,000 in donations from more than 60 donors, whose contributions have ranged from $100 to $5,000 each. Using state campaign finance records, GoLocalPDX compiled a list of Hale's 15 biggest donors, many of which are major power players in Portland's development industry.

How Ted Wheeler Could Unseat Charlie Hales in 2016

Related Slideshow: Charlie Hales’s Top 15 Donors

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