Is Jules Bailey Really Leading the Mayor’s Race?
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Jules Bailey
The poll, which was conducted by Patinkin Research Strategies, asked respondents to answer the question “if the May 17th Primary Election for mayor of Portland were held today, for whom would you vote or are you undecided?” 38 percent said they supported Bailey, a slim majority over the 35 percent who said they supported Wheeler. Another 25 percent said they were undecided and one percent said they planned on voting for another candidate.
Wheeler’s campaign minimized the poll, saying that it was not a reliable indicator of the status of the Mayor’s race.
"This clearly isn't a credible poll, but Jules Bailey is a practiced politician and he's going to focus on this sort of thing,” Michael Cox, Wheeler’s campaign manager, told GoLocal. “Ted Wheeler is an experienced policy maker and he's focused on solutions to the challenges facing our city."
Sign of Strength
Rebecca Tweed, Political and Communications Director for State Street Solutions, told GoLocal that she did not agree with Cox’s assessment of the poll.
“It seems reliable to me at this stage – a small lead within the margin of error and a large enough sample seems like a reliable poll,” Tweed said. “The poll results don’t come as a surprise me. It was clear that Bailey entering the race increased the profile of the campaign, and his announcement-to-announce brought in a new energy and momentum to a mayoral campaign that was in a bit of lull without a serious challenger for Wheeler.It seems reliable to me at this stage – a small lead within the margin of error and a large enough sample seems like a reliable poll.”
Tweed also said that the poll results did not come as a surprise. She cited Bailey’s impact on the campaign in the days since his announcement, and said his plans to formally announce his candidacy in January has re-energized the race.
“While Wheeler has had a longer official campaign for Mayor, Bailey has been a staple in Portland politics for quite some time,” Tweed said. ‘Voters are familiar with his policy decisions, as a State Rep and as a Commissioner, and they’ve voted for him before and consistently. He’s well known and well-liked. He has high name recognition and likeability.”
Not Intimidated
While Tweed said that while she believes Bailey will be ‘a serious contender to Wheeler,” she also predicted the campaign would be a long and close-fought battle.
Tweed also said she did not believe the polls would have an impact on Wheeler’s strategy.
“Even though it’s technically a lead, I’d call it a dead-heat. If it were by 7 points or so, a “lead” would then be a more accurate description,” Tweed said of the poll results. “I don’t think Wheeler’s team is, or should be, intimidated by this poll. They’ve been running a steady campaign and a candidate like Bailey coming in will bring a certain surge of interest and momentum, and that’s normal. I imagine Wheeler’s team will continue with their strategy and focus on their campaign’s direction.”
Related Slideshow: SLIDESHOW: Ted Wheeler Announces Portland Mayoral Candidacy on Rooftop of Revolution Hall
Oregon Treasurer Ted Wheeler was joined by the press and many close friends, family members, and supporters on the rooftop of Revolution Hall off of SE Stark so that he could officially make his candidacy announcement for Portland mayor in the 2016 mayoral race.
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