Can Bailey Compete with Wheeler’s Fundraising?

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Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Brendan Murray, GoLocalPDX Contributor

Five months before the first votes are cast in the 2016 Portland Mayoral election, Oregon State Treasurer Ted Wheeler has raised thousands in campaign contributions, while his main opponent, Multnomah County Commissioner Jules Bailey, has not reported a single donation since December 15, and has self-imposed a limit of $250, making it hard to believe Bailey will come close to his opponent’s fundraising totals. 

Experts told GoLocal that Bailey will have problems competing with Wheeler on the campaign trail with such a sizable lead in funds.

Wheeler’s Financial Strength Not a Surprise

Marc Abrams, former chair of the Democratic Party of Oregon, told GoLocal that he has anticipated an expensive and hard-fought campaign ever since Wheeler first made his announcement. He also said that he was not surprised that Wheeler, running against a sitting mayor in Hales, would make fundraising a top priority.

“Wheeler wants to build an image that he’s coming on strong against a fairly popular incumbent,” Abrams said, noting that Wheeler’s first political victory came against another incumbent, Diane Linn, in the race for Multnomah County Chair. “He’s got a playbook for this, and he knows what he wants to do. 

Abrams also said that he does not expect Wheeler to slow down fundraising efforts, even in spite of his wide margin.

“The fundraising machine really doesn’t stop once it gets started,” he said. “It just keeps eating up everything it can, so he's going to keep going and keep raising money.”

What Does it Mean for Bailey?

Abrams said that while he believes that Bailey has time to start his fundraising process, he must do so quickly.

“If he reverses his course pretty quick and starts raising a lot of money next month, then I don’t really think it’s a concern,” Abrams said. “No harm, no foul, as the election is still a fairly long time away. If he waits to get his fundraising into gear, however, I think that could really hurt him.”

Rebecca Tweed agreed she told GoLocal when Bailey announced his campaign that Bailey would have to move quickly in order to compete with months-long front runner Wheeler.

“Because Wheeler has done so well raising money and obtaining endorsements to this point, with no signs of slowing down, Bailey will still need to have a strong outpouring of support from the beginning of his campaign to show that he is taking this seriously, that he is not intimidated by Wheeler’s successes thus far, and that he has the backing necessary to win,” Tweed told GoLocal. “He will need to solidify some key endorsements and raise a lot of capital to show he has significant support in his campaign, right from the start.”

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