Half of Seventeen is Nine: A Look at the Seattle Seahawks Playoff Odds

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Brian Hight of GoLocalPDX Partner Site Oregon Sports News

Russel Wilson

After nine weeks of the NFL season, all 32 teams have played eight games and a handful of teams, who haven’t yet had their bye week, have played nine. So, it seems fair to say that the 2015 season is at least half over. In the NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks find themselves at .500 with a 4-4 record, two games behind the Arizona Cardinals, and their fans wondering about their chances of returning to the playoffs. Of course, a win over the Cardinals on Sunday could trim the division deficit to one game, but it’s still worth taking a look at the bigger playoff picture in the NFC at the half way point.

DVOA Projections

The advanced analytics website Football Outsiders has added playoff projections this year. The playoff odds are calculated by simulating the season 25,000 times using Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). As DVOA changes over the course of the season, the simulation is run again weekly to project the remainder of the schedule while taking into account each team’s actual record.

So for instance, the Seahawks playoff odds actually improved 10.2% while they were on a bye, largely from week eight losses by the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons. Currently, the DVOA fueled projections have the Seahawks with a mean number of wins of 8.8 and a 44.0% chance of making the playoffs, most likely as a wildcard.

The NFC Playoff Picture

In the NFC as a whole, the team with a 72.3% chance of nailing down the one seed is the Carolina Panthers. They also have a 99.8% chance overall of making the playoffs. The current favorite for the two seed is the Cardinals at 36.9% and 94.4% to make the playoffs in any capacity. With a 95.5% chance of making the playoffs, the Green Bay Packers are the most likely three seed at 38.6%. Which leaves the four seed to whoever wins the NFC East. The current “favorite” is the Philadelphia Eagles over the New York Giants, 55.6% to 32.8%.

This leaves the wild cards. Currently, the Falcons and the Minnesota Vikings lead there with a 56.4% chance and 46.2A% chance of making the playoffs, respectively. The Seahawks are not far behind with a 44.0% of making the playoffs. One complication, however, is that if the Vikings were to overtake the Packers – both teams are 6-2 – the Packers would then be an odds on favorite to take one of the wildcard spots. If the Seahawks can’t rally to take the division, the final wild card is their best shot of getting in.

Teams to Keep an Eye On

So as Seahawks fans get ready for the division rival Cardinals on Sunday and a chance to close the gap in the NFC West, they should also be keeping tabs on the Vikings who play the Oakland Raiders on Sunday and the Falcons (on a bye) going forward.

GoLocalPDX partner Oregon Sports News: Since 2011, Oregon Sports News has provided entertaining, hard-hitting local sports news & commentary every weekday. To read more from this author, check out Oregon Sports News by clicking here.

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