slides: 5 Things to Watch for on Oregon’s Election Night

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Cornelius Swart, GoLocalPDX Director of Content

What will be the deciding factors for Oregon’s mid-term elections?

It’s been a mid-term election season of historic proportion. Scandals, huge ballot questions and lots of money have been plentiful this season. Control of the Oregon Senate is at play. And a large number of new voters have registered, many abandoning party affiliation.

How much will that factor into the actual election results, and what will those results portend for things to come? GoLocalPDX asked local activists and political experts what they thought could turn the tide.

“It’s all about voter turnout,” said Chris Shortell, Associate Professor of Political Science at Portland State University’s Hatfield School of Government.

Slide Show: 5 Things to Look for on Election Night

Political experts are predicting that Oregon voter turnout will be in the low seventy percentiles, dead even with the last two midterm elections in the state.

Big Races, Big Scandals, Small Turnout?

The big races for governor and U.S. Senate have both been rocked by scandal, which in general is not good for voter enthusiasm.

Governor John Kitzhaber’s campaign has been all but consumed by scandals revolving around his fiancée Cylvia Hayes. Stories about Hayes, propelled by the media, range from an alleged marijuana growing operation Hayes undertook in 1997 to questions raised about whether or not the consulting contracts she pursued while working in the Governor’s office could be considered lobbying.

Jeff Merkley’s U.S. Senate challenger Monica Wehby has been cowed by scandals as well, including a police report that characterized her as stalking a former boyfriend.

In both cases Democrats are projected to win. But the scandals may influence voter turnout in a way that could have an impact on candidates further down the ballot, like in the state senate race.

“I think in these cases the scandals will depress turnout among supporters while not increasing turnout among opponents,” said Shortell. “There’s probably enough of a margin for Kitzhaber to not impact him.”

But on other issues lower turnout can be a factor in the decisions, especially in tight ballot questions.That’s not a good thing for liberals, who tend to have lower voter turnout in the midterms to begin with. Democrats and unions often have a powerful ground game that can get voters out in major races.

“That helps them if it’s a presidential year,” said Scott Bruun, a former politician and a GoLocalPDX contributor. “But in a midterm, the turnout is in the Republicans’ favor.”

Kyle MacLowry with Portland Fire Fighters Association said his union usually does a lot of get out the vote work in presidential elections years, but this year his group has only done one event.

“It’s hard for us to get our members to do phone banking [in a midterm],” said MacLowry. “It’s not one of our strengths.”

That could have a big impact for initiatives like Measure 91 that would legalize recreational marijuana. An Elway Research poll commissioned by The Oregonian estimated that 44 percent of voters would vote to legalize pot, 46 percent wouldn’t and 7 percent are undecided.

On the Fence Voters

Undecided voters will also be a factor in some major races, like Oregon’s Top Two Primary. Measure 90 would do away with partisan primaries and run all candidates at once and then move the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, into a final runoff election.

The Elway Research poll showed 36 percent of voters for it, 38 percent of voters against it, and a whopping 26 percent were still undecided.

“That’s a lot of undecided,” said Shortell. “If that was a candidate it would be really high. Undecideds tend to be high when it’s a complex issue. Also, when there isn’t a perceived partisan advantage it’s harder for a voter to make decisions.”

The Oregon Senate

The stakes are high in the Oregon Senate, where disaffected voters would have the biggest impact in tight races in small districts.

Currently the Democrats control both chambers in the capitol. But a number of close races could yield a significant shift in the senate, depending on how things go. The senate is currently split with 14 Republicans and 16 Democrats. If the GOP can pick up two seats, they could retake the chamber. If they get one seat they could block legislation. If the Democrats win two seats they win a supermajority, and with control of the other chamber and Mahonia Hall, could raise taxes along party-line votes.

It all comes down to about five closely-contested state senate races. Bruun, believes Senate President Peter Courtney will hold onto this seat in Salem, despite a worthy run from his opponent Republican Patti Milne. “She might be one of the strongest GOP candidates anywhere in the state,” said Bruun. “But she’s running in a Democratic district where everyone knows [Courtney.]”

However, two area races could shift the balance in the senate: one in Clackamas County, where Republican Alan Olsen is fending off Democrat challenger Jamie Damon and one in Hillsboro, where Republican Bruce Starr is facing down Democrat challenger Chuck Riley.

It’s unlikely that the Democrats would get that coveted supermajority, given the low party turnout most are expecting. But any shift to the right in the senate will make it harder for Democrats to push through an agenda.

“Midterms rarely go well for the party in the White House,” said Shortell. “That’s likely to affect Democrats in Oregon.”

But with 50 percent of all ballots coming in on Monday and Tuesday, according to Tim Hibbits of DHM Research, nothing is set in stone.

Related Slideshow: Slideshow: 5 Things to Watch For in Oregon’s Midterm Election

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Voter turnout

Voter turnout will be key for a handful of close elections in the Oregon State Senate and for ballot Measure 91, that would legalize pot. Right now, the demographic most likely to vote in a midterm is older and conservative. That doesn't bode well for M91. Democrats are typically bad at getting voters to turn out for midterms. Midterms also tend to be bad news for the party in power at the White House. That could be doubly bad news for Dems. Right now, voter participation looks to be at 73 percent, almost exactly what it was in the last two Oregon midterms, according to political consultant Len Bergstein.

Photo credit: iStock

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Undecided, unaffiliated

Undecided voters and unaffiliated voters will be a factor. Undecideds will largely be the key to whether or not Measure 90, Oregon's Top Two Primary initiative, will pass. Unaffiliated voters, those that register to vote but don't join a political party, are on the rise in Oregon. While Democrats still lead in overall voter registration, with 831,432 and Republicans in second with 656,794, unaffiliated voters are creeping up at 532,420.

Some think that could impact voter dynamics at the polls. But Tim Hibbits of DHM Research says unaffiliated voters actually vote in line with most of the other people in their district. "They just don't like the party label," Hibbits said.

Photo credit: iStock

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State Senate

Control of the Oregon State Senate could rest on the outcome of five elections. The senate is currently split with 14 Republicans and 16 Democrats. Just one seat picked up by the GOP could give them power to block legislation. If the Dems pick up two seats, they could raise taxes along party-vote lines.

Here are the races to watch:

Peter Courtney, D, vs. Patti Milne, R, in Salem
Alan Bates, D, vs. Dave Dotterrer, R, in Medford
Betsy Close, R, vs. Sara Gelser, D, in Albany
Alan Olsen, R, vs. Jaime Damon, D, in Clackamas County
Bruce Starr, R, vs. Chuck Riley, D, in Hillsboro

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Voter Registration

Voter registration numbers are the highest they have been for a midterm election since at least 1998 and are nearly as high as the 2012 presidential election. Voter registration was 2,193,295 this election compared to 2,068,798 in 2010, according to the Oregon Secretary of State's Elections Division.

While the total volume of registered voters has increased, getting them to vote is another issue.

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Kitzhaber's Mandate

Most experts say Governor John Kitzhaber is likely to win an historical fourth term in office. That said, the question will be by how much. Kitzhaber has been slipping in the polls and low Democrat turnout could hurt his margins even more. He may become Governor, but will he be a Lame Oregon Duck before he gets in? With an ethics investigation to start soon and possibly emboldened Republicans in the legislature it may be hard to get an agenda through without a big vote of confidence for the voter, AKA a wide electoral margin.