Should Charlie Hales Be Fired: Experts Weigh In
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Charlie Hales
Marc Abrams, a former Chair of the Democratic Party of Oregon, told GoLocal he expects it to be a close and hard-fought race.
“I think this election is definitely going to be a catfight,” Abrams said. “I think Ted Wheeler comes into the race as a slight favorite.”
Jim Moore, Director of the Tom McCall Center for Policy Innovation at Pacific State University, disagreed. He told GoLocal that Wheeler has his work cut out for him.
“It’s going to be an uphill fight,” Moore said. “He’s just not that well known in the city of Portland. He really has to introduce himself to the city.”
Fundraising
Abrams, former Party Chairman, said he believes both candidates will have no problem raising funds. He said they would need to raise as much as possible to stay competitive in the race.
“I think this is going to be a very expensive campaign…I think we will see $1 million spent easily,” Abrams said. “I’m not really sure that anyone has an edge in terms of financing.
Moore said that fundraising would prove to be a big factor, not only because of the money each candidate will need to operate a successful campaign, but also because of its implications.
“Ted Wheeler has a habit of donating a lot of money to himself,” he said. “That way, he can say he isn’t beholden to anyone.”
Despite that, Moore said Hales will likely raise more money than Wheeler, thanks in large part to his status as an incumbent.
“People usually go with the incumbent because it is a safer bet, it’s just that simple,” Moore said. “Wheeler will be able to make inroads if true polls show this being a close race.”
Kari Chisholm, a top Democratic consultant, told GoLocal he thought the winner of the fundraising battle was not so obvious.
“Often, when it comes to fundraising, the most important factor is to get the job done,” Chisholm said. “Who’s on the phones, getting people to donate, getting people to hold events. Its really the work that goes into it…that’s a tough thing to determine from outside the campaigns.”
Ted Wheeler
Overlapping Bases
Ted Wheeler
Moore said that both candidates would draw from some of the same bases of support.
“Both are fairly well respected in the business community, and that’s where a large part of both of their bases come from” Moore said.
Moore also said Wheeler will draw support from groups he worked with during his time as Chairman of the Multnomah County Board of Commissioners, while Hales will build on those that have been pleased with his time in office.
“Wheeler will be strong with those that value things like mental health as an issue...he’ll also have support from those who are trying to solve the larger social problems in the city, because that’s what councilmen do,” Moore said. “Hales will be weaker there…but he’ll have more strength in those that are looking at his big projects, particularly transportation.”
Chisholm said neither had done enough to secure the trust of minority voters.
“While they have constituencies that overlap, they also have constituencies that don’t really go for either candidate,” he said. “I think people of color are going to take a wait and see attitude with this race.”
Transportation and Homelessness
Abrams said he thought transportation was the biggest factor in the campaign.
“I think roads are going to be the number one issue,” he said. “Can you come up with an idea to improve the city’s streets?”
Moore, of Pacific State, agreed. “I think it’s going to come down to issues that are always facing Portland, like transportation,” he said. “Our roads are becoming more crowded and people are leaning heavily on bikes and light rail. Whoever can show their plan is the best is going to do well.”
Chisholm said that Wheeler has made it clear this vote should be a referendum on how Hales has managed the city.
“When you’re running against an incumbent, you need to make it about past performance,” Chisholm said. “There are lots of things not getting done in Portland. We’re ten years out on the 10-year plan to end homelessness, and while the Mayor didn’t come up with that plan, he was the one that couldn’t get it done.”
Abrams agreed that homelessness would loom large in the election. More than 3,000 homeless now reside in Portland, including nearly 1,900 people that sleep on the streets each night, according to a survey by the City of Portland.
“People are tired of sidewalks being bedrooms,” Abrams said. “Obviously, people feel for the homeless but making the parks a permanent ‘hooverville’ isn’t working. The vote is going to go to who get the homelessness out of our neighborhoods.”
Who Will Win?
Moore said that if he had to pick a winner today, he would pick Hales.
“It’s really tough to beat an incumbent,” Moore said, noting that it hadn’t occurred since Bud Clark defeated Frank Ivancie in 1984. “The last time it happened there was a real feeling of corruption, that Clark was going to clean it all up…We don’t have that dynamic here.”
Abrams, however, thinks Wheeler will have a new office in City Hall once all is said and done.
“It’s close, but I would choose Ted [Wheeler],” Abrams said. “Campaigns are about excitement and Wheeler is much more exciting than Hales. Hales got a little lucky in terms of the exciting candidates being flawed.”
Chisholm also said he believed Wheeler would win the race. “Hales has really failed to connect with the new Portland and those that have moved here recently and love it, but have concerns about how it’s been managed," Chisholm said.
Related Slideshow: SLIDESHOW: Ted Wheeler Announces Portland Mayoral Candidacy on Rooftop of Revolution Hall
Oregon Treasurer Ted Wheeler was joined by the press and many close friends, family members, and supporters on the rooftop of Revolution Hall off of SE Stark so that he could officially make his candidacy announcement for Portland mayor in the 2016 mayoral race.
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