Portland Trail Blazers Game Preview & Prediction – Oklahoma City Thunder

Monday, March 14, 2016

Jared Wright, Oregon Sports News

The Portland Trail Blazers have yet another tough road trip ahead of them as the United States is gripped in March Madness. In fact, three of the four games taking place for the Blazers this week will directly conflict with one of the greatest sports traditions in the U.S.: the first and second rounds of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

I’m not a fan of the college game myself, even after they shortened the shot clock to 30 seconds; it’s too slow and the players aren’t totally sure of what to do on most possessions. Except for the 20 or so supreme individuals that I’ll be breaking down as rookies during the next NBA season, the college players are either products of incredible coaching, or lucky jump shooters that get off a tough shot, and have the ball go through the hoop.

That all said, I also am a huge fan of underdogs, and the NCAA Tournament’s Cinderella stories are irresistible fodder both for fans of such stories, like me, and lazy writers looking for an easy narrative…like me.

Sadly, I’ll be working during the Tournament’s early rounds. I’m sure I can convince the concierge to keep a TV on downstairs for me though, if some of the tenants themselves don’t get “mysteriously sick” and have a watch party in the lounge. Plus, there’s always my smart phone, if all else fails. Never fear, I’ll be able to watch for that mammoth upset that can only occur when teenage college kids play against other teenage college kids.

As for the Blazers’ week, I will preview tonight’s game now, then do the others either tomorrow or Wednesday; I love to keep my editors guessing.

Stats as always are provided by NBA.com and basketball-reference.com. And you can listen to this game on the radio partner of Oregon Sports News, AM 620 Rip City Radio!

Monday, March 14: @ the Oklahoma City Thunder, 5:00 PM, CSNNW

The Skinny: As I’ll list in detail later on, if there weren’t two godlike teams directly above them in the Western Conference, the Thunder probably would be among the favorites to win the NBA title this season. They still are to some people; Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook finally forming the ultimate Voltron/Exodia monster (kudos for those that get those references, and are as big a nerd as I am) does have a strong influence, I’ll admit.

Durant is have a spectacular season, averaging 28/8/5 while shooting 50% from the field, 39% from three-point range, and 89.7% from the free-throw line. In a traditional sense, as a small forward, he’s having the kind of season that only Larry Bird and LeBron James could think about having, and Durant is a better shooter than James and a better athlete than Bird.

Westbrook is a dynamic force of nature, a player with extreme athleticism even for the NBA, and he’s finally learned to channel it in ways that benefits not just himself and Sportscenter, but his entire team as well. His line is 24/7.5/10, and while his three-point shooting is a poor 29%, it’s churlish to really to ding him on that; Dwyane Wade was always a poor jump shooter from beyond 18 feet, and he’s become a three-time champion and one of the best 50 players ever. It’s very hard to be critical of a man that’s having a point guard season comparable with Oscar Robertson.

The issue for Oklahoma City is the personnel complimenting the modern-day versions of Bird and Oscar currently gracing their roster.

Serge Ibaka is having a down season. His PPG is at its lowest since 2012, his blocks per game average is at its lowest since his rookie season in 2009-10, his field-goal and three-point shooting are both at their lowest since he took a larger role in the offense (the FG% is at its lowest ever for him), and his rebounding is also at its lowest since he was a rookie, though Steven Adams is probably the main reason for that.

Ibaka’s PER (13.5) is another stat at its career lowest, and for the first time ever, he hasn’t broken the 15 mark in PER. 15, as I’ve noted in prior columns, is the league average when measuring NBA PER, and Ibaka’s failure to crack that barrier when he should be reaching the peak of his basketball performance has to be troubling to the Thunder’s front office.

It does seem that Ibaka has been less aggressive this season, while watching Thunder games. He’s taken almost 60% of his shots this year outside the paint, mostly on midrange pick-and-pop jumpers. Considering he plays with Westbrook, whose attitude is attack all the time, every time, it’s understandable Ibaka would just pop out. With the Thunder offense getting very stale and ineffective in the playoffs, though, it’s high time for the Westbrook-Ibaka dynamic to add some diversity to its execution.

As for the rest of the Thunder roster, their fourth- and fifth-best players are Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters, former top-five draft picks that were traded to the Thunder when they couldn’t mold their games around a team concept. Desperate for young talent, and desiring to have a contingency plan in case Durant left in free agency this summer, Oklahoma City picked up Waiters for scraps, and traded for Kanter.

Portland actually extended a four-year, $70 million offer sheet to Kanter in the offseason, but to the relief of myself, my friends, and basketball nerds everywhere in Portland, the Thunder matched. They now have a one-dimensional backup center making $70 million over the next four years. My buddy Bryant Knox says Portland GM Neil Olshey screwed over Thunder GM Sam Presti. I say Olshey was saved from a big blunder by Presti making a desperate gamble. I’m not a fan of slow offense-only centers that chase empty stats, and Kanter epitomizes that.

Waiters, a shooting guard, is even worse; if you’re a young player playing alongside established All-Stars in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in Cleveland, and alongside one of the best 10 players EVER in LeBron James, you shut up, get to your spot, and help run the offense. No arguments, no lip.

You do not--repeat, DO NOT--repeatedly and loudly call for the ball, again and again, then pout like a small child during timeouts because two All-Stars and a living legend just so happen to shoot more shots than you. You also do not--repeat, DO NOT--laze around on defense, letting opponents score on you, in protest of not getting the ball on a certain play. And above all, you do not--repeat, DO NOT--hold the ball and hijack the offense when you actually do get the ball, making aimless one-on-one moves that result in a badly missed shot…while the best passing forward since Larry Bird, LeBron James, is on the court, and looking at you like you’re a fresh dog turd he just stepped in.

Waiters broke all three rules repeatedly and willfully, and got traded to Oklahoma City as a result. His skills are put to use off the bench, like Kanter, and like Kanter, the results and production have been mixed, and come with a double edge of no effort on defense.

Everybody else on the Thunder are specialists or veterans just about out of the NBA. Durant and Westbrook are great players, among the best in the league, but they can’t get through the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs on their own. With Ibaka having a down year, and the young guys unable so far to pick up the slack, OKC is slumping badly.

Player To Watch: Al-Farouq Aminu. His defensive efforts on Durant are always must-see TV, for a nerd like myself anyway.

Prediction: This game is on the road, but Oklahoma City is slumping. Portland isn’t exactly hot themselves, but I feel like making a risky prediction. Blazers win.

Last week, the Blazers went 2-1, but I went 3-0 on account of calling the Warriors loss correctly. I am 7-0 over my last two weeks; if I get to 10, I’ll start buying lottery tickets.

Trail Blazers’ Record: 35-32

Jared’s Picks Record: 39-28