With Robin Lopez Out 6-7 Weeks, Who Should Take His Place?
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Two positives: 1. We got a deep squad 2. Lots of love from the chicks #IGotThisWrasslinABear #NeverSayDie #RIPCITY pic.twitter.com/D68bEXsdpV
— Robin Lopez (@rolopez42) December 16, 2014
It was a good run, but the Blazers have once again been bitten by the injury bug.
After banging his right hand against the back of Boris Diaw's skull, Monday night, Robin Lopez suffered two broken bones. He is expected to miss somewhere between six and seven weeks.
Certainly the Blazers will miss his defense, screens and boxing out.
But how will they cope?
Coach Terry Stotts declined to name as starter at Tuesday's practice. In part, Stotts' reluctance is likely a product of gamesmanship--better to keep Wednesday's opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks, guessing. But Stotts also deferred, presumably because he's in a bit of a tight spot.
The conventional wisdom is to move Chris Kaman, the most experienced and productive of the Blazers' backup big men, into the starting lineup.
But Stotts isn't conventional--innovation has made him successful with the Trail Blazers.
Here's the deal: shifting Kaman into the starting lineup carries two risks. The first is that bench scoring goes down the toilet. Remember: Lopez isn't asked to score--he's just supposed to play defense and not do dumb stuff.
The second risk to starting Kaman is that he's big and old. As such, it's not hard to see the 12-year veteran getting warn down--or worse, getting injured.
Prior to Lopez's injury, Kaman had been posting the best PER of his career. (PER = Player Efficiency Rating, a formula that combines statsistics from all aspects of the game into one handy number.) Kaman is acheiving better numbers, in part, because he's playing against other backups, something he's done rarely in the past.
But Kaman's resurgence in a Blazers' uniform owes creedence to the fact that the 32-year-old has been playing in short, managed bursts.
Force Kaman to play 30-plus minutes each night--instead of the 19 he's averaging--and run the risk of rendering him useless.
In other words: if it ain't broke, don't break it.
Which leaves Stotts and the Blazers with a relatively thin list of alternatives: Joel Freeland, Meyers Leonard and Thomas Robinson. Surely none are jumping off the page.
But whoever it is, they won't be asked to do all that much, really, just: set good screens, execute the defensive scheme, box out, keep the ball moving and let the starters worry about scoring.
Again: don't do dumb stuff.
For my money, that sounds the most like Joel Freeland.
Besides Kaman, Freeland is the Blazer big with this season's most on-court experience. And while he hasn't put the NBA on notice, he has at least demostrated some semblance of competence and reliability.
Whether Freeland--or any of the other young Blazer bigs--is ready to take the next step remains murky.
One thing, however, is clear: as Robin Lopez has not missed a single game as a Blazer, coach Stotts and the remaining starters will need time to adjust.
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Plus...
A few stats to mull over as the Blazers play without Lopez that ought to shine a light on his true value. Before Lopez's injury the Blazers were...
- 6th overall in Defensive Efficiency
- 1st overall in Rebounding
- 6th overall in Rebounding Rate
- 9th overall in Defensive Rebounding Rate
- 13th overall in Offensive Rebounding Rate
Also, let's see how Lopez's absence effects LaMarcus Aldridge, who continually praises Lopez for allowing him to operate in his true comfort zone. LaMarcus Aldridge pre-Lopez injury...
- 22.2 Points Per Game
- 10.2 Rebounds Per Game
- 21.77 PER
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