Portland Trail Blazers vs. LA Clippers - 1st Round Preview & Prediction

Friday, April 15, 2016

Jared Wright, Oregon Sports News

Well. The Portland Trail Blazers did it. They actually did it. They actually made the playoffs for the third straight year despite losing 80% of their very successful starting lineup of the last two years.

The how of the equation can be explained by a lethal backcourt of CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard and some very capable role players. Mason Plumlee’s offensive versatility, Allen Crabbe’s shooting ability, Ed Davis being a supreme garbage man (ESPN’s Zach Lowe actually has Davis third on his ballot for Sixth Man of the Year. Glad to know I’m not the only fan of Ed.), Al-Farouq Aminu’s defensive ability, and other factors have added their own little contributions that have added up to the fifth-best record in the Western Conference, and a date with the Los Angeles Clippers.

Today, I’ll preview the series by breaking down each matchup, and providing my prediction. First, the schedule:

Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (5), NBA Playoffs First Round

Game 1: Blazers @ Clippers, Sunday, April 17, 7:30 PM, TNT
Game 2: Blazers @ Clippers, Wednesday, April 20, 7:30 PM, TNT
Game 3: Clippers @ Blazers, Saturday, April 23, 7:30 PM, ESPN
Game 4: Clippers @ Blazers, Monday, April 25, 7:30 PM, TNT
*Game 5: Blazers @ Clippers, Wednesday, April 27, To Be Determined
*Game 6: Clippers @ Blazers, Friday, April 29, TBD
*Game 7, Blazers @ Clippers, Sunday, May 1, TBD

All games on (I believe) KGW

*if necessary

Los Angeles has home-court due to their superior record; it’s not like last year, where Portland was the nominal 4-seed but didn’t have home-court.

Matchups

Point Guard, Damian Lillard vs. Chris Paul: Paul’s about three weeks from his 31st birthday, yet he’s still one of the best point guards in the NBA. His blend of elite passing, great shooting, and dogged defense have made him the best point guard of the 2000s. He may have lost the top point guard designation as of right now because Stephen Curry has smashed records like matchsticks, but that doesn’t mean Paul’s lost any steps.

Paul has kept the Clippers together through all the Blake Griffin B.S. and the decline of Jamal Crawford. He’s able to manufacture a decent shot at any time, the main reason why Los Angeles is sixth in Offensive Rating (right ahead of Portland, who’s seventh) despite Griffin being a dumbass.

Lillard is the closest thing to Curry as a mere mortal can get, but he’s not Curry. It doesn’t bode well for the Blazers that their best player is facing a superior player at his position, but Dame will be up for the challenge.

He’ll likely have to labor for the points and plays Portland desperately needs from him, though. And that’s not a good thing.

Advantage: Clippers

Shooting Guard, CJ McCollum vs. JJ Redick: Redick’s great skill is his Reggie Miller-like ability to slither around endless picks, run his man ragged, than catch and shoot with lethal accuracy. He’s averaging 16.3 points per game on 47% three-point shooting, which is a ridiculous percentage to shoot. Thank you Chris Paul.

McCollum is averaging five more points per, on many more shots and with less accuracy. CJ has more versatility to his game, though, with a handy drive-and-kick game, a buttery pull-up jumper, a baseline shot that always seems to go in, and the handles that can shake an average defender like Redick right out of his shoes.

CJ is also sneaky good at getting around screens. He tries his ass off on defense, and in order to limit Redick’s impact on the game, he’ll have to. On offense, if Clippers coach Doc Rivers is foolish enough to have Redick cover either Lillard or McCollum, they have to go at Redick.

My guess is Rivers hides Redick on Aminu or Mo Harkless, and lives with it.

Advantage: Blazers

Small Forward, Al-Farouq Aminu vs. Paul Pierce: As recently as three years ago, I’d give this to Pierce in a heartbeat; Pierce is a future Hall-of-Famer, an NBA champion, and is one of the many, many greats to play for the Boston Celtics.

However, at an advanced playing age and on a bum knee, none of that history isn’t going to help Pierce now.

Eternal scrub Wesley Johnson could start in Pierce’s place if the old guy can’t go. Either way, Aminu is better than the latest scrap heap players Los Angeles is plugging into the 3 spot; it’s been a chronic problem for them since Paul arrived.

Advantage; Blazers

Power Forward, Maurice Harkless vs. Blake Griffin: Griffin might be an A-hole to his friends and might create unnecessary melodrama around his team, but the fact is that he’s perhaps the finest power forward in the game.

His passing acumen is unmatched among big men, and he can score in a variety of ways, including in the post. The post is where Griffin will just murder the Blazers if they try to play small, like they would if Harkless were starting with Aminu.

Both forwards are undersized compared to Griffin, and if Portland coach Terry Stotts isn’t careful, his team could get eaten alive in the rebounding category.

Advantage: Clippers

Center, Mason Plumlee vs. DeAndre Jordan: Jordan isn’t as skilled as Plumlee, but the things Jordan can do, he does very well. The threat of a Griffin-Jordan alley-oop, or a Paul-Jordan pick-and-roll play, is very real; Jordan can catch any pass aimed above the rim and stuff it home with the force of a charging bull.

Rivers badly overstates Jordan’s defensive capabilities, but he’s still a very good defender that generally knows how to snuff out an action, then return to his place in the defense before the offense can take advantage.

Plumlee will get punked a few times on plays to Jordan above the rim; I’d be shocked if there isn’t a new DeAndre Jordan poster by the end of this series. He lacks awareness at times on defense, and against the Clippers (and usually in the playoffs), lacking awareness at any time spells doom.

Plum has to engage Jordan at the elbows on offense, keeping him as far away from the rim as possible. Jordan’s a mobile guy, but if Plumlee can roll well to the hoop on a screen play with a guard, and set a solid pick, he could cause Jordan to hesitate for a split second…a split second that could be all Lillard or McCollum need to shoot an open jumper.

Still, Jordan has a couple elite skills. Plumlee has a few above-average skills. It comes down to defense here, and Jordan is light-years ahead of poor Plumlee on that end.

Advantage: Clippers

Bench Players: On paper, the Clips have a solid bench at least, maybe good when Jamal Crawford and Jeff Green are hot shooting. Delving deeper into the numbers might tell a different story.

Crawford is 36, and is a volume shooter. He takes 11.4 shots per game to score 14 PPG, not the best rate. He also shoots 40% from the field. Other than the occasional crazy four-point play, Crawford brings only volume shooting to the table. At least against the Blazers, they can hide him on one of Portland’s many young wings that can’t dribble worth a lick or post up.

Green is as patchy as they come, Luc Mbah a Moute is basically a poor man’s Tony Allen with a fancier name, Austin Rivers and Wesley Johnson are busts that play like hot garbage sometimes, and Cole Aldrich is a big guy, I guess?

The Blazers’ best bench guy might well be Davis, really. His game is unsexy, but it works, and he’ll be desperately needed against Griffin and Jordan. Gerald Henderson could be an X-factor; his ability to break a defense down in his limited way could prove useful against the likes of Crawford and Austin Rivers.

Noah Vonleh won’t be asked for much. I have a feeling that his minutes might go to Chris Kaman, but I doubt Stotts cares that much about winning; this is all about the experience for the young guys. Allen Crabbe is another guy to mention.

There are warts all over both benches, but while the Clippers have a couple guys that had proven their worth in the past, the Blazers have a ton of guys that have yet to prove their playoff worth. Slight edge to experience, even if that Clipper bench makes me queasy imagining them against Golden State.

Advantage: Clippers

Coaching: Doc Rivers won a title with Boston, but that was a long time ago with a veteran team. In Los Angeles, he hasn’t been able to help this team break through that second-round ceiling holding them back. Now, with the Warriors and Spurs becoming nigh impossible to beat, and the issues with his own team, Rivers might not get that chance.

Still, Doc’s qualities as a leader should NEVER be questioned, ever. When the Donald Sterling scandal broke, Rivers kept everybody in the organization together, from the players to the coaches to the front office personnel to the service personnel. Everybody looked to Doc for leadership, and in an impossible position, he delivered in spades. His other title of president of the Clippers, and that rarest of commodities for an NBA coach (job security), was his rich reward.

As for Stotts, he took a group of youngsters and journeymen and turned them into the fifth seed in the West. It seems like almost everybody that comes through Portland and spends time with Terry Stotts has career years here. LaMarcus Aldridge reached his statistical peak under Stotts. So did Wesley Matthews.

Robin Lopez revitalized his career here. CJ McCollum was set free to become a 21 PPG scorer in the NBA, something no one thought was possible from him this season. Ed Davis has established himself in the NBA. Al-Farouq Aminu, one of the crappiest shooters in the NBA before being signed here, is an above-average three-point shooter now. Mason Plumlee is running, and finishing, fast-breaks by himself.

Stotts is as gifted at player development as Doc Rivers is at leadership. Are they both perfect? Of course not; Terry Stotts has failed sometimes at player development just as Rivers has failed as a leader sometimes. However, both men, like their teams, play to their strengths while using the people they have to help cover for their weaknesses. That’s why they’re both in the upper tier of NBA coaches.

Advantage: Even

Final Verdict: Clippers in 6.