Double or Nothing - A Trail Blazers Season Preview

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Andrew R Tonry, GoLocalPDX Contributor

Double or Nothing - A Trailblazers Season Preview

The Trail Blazers were lucky dogs last year. But if the hot hands don't continue could the wheels fall off in Rip City?

What would make the Trail Blazers' 2014-15 season a success?

Would it be winning 50 games? Would it be, simply, making the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference? Would it be, again, getting bounced in the the second round? Would it be, perhaps improbably, making the Western Conference Finals?

Or would it would it be measured in other terms?

Would a successful season mean re-signing LaMarcus Aldridge? And what about Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez, who are both entering contract years as well?

Indeed, the pressure's on--both from organization and in the eyes of individual players.

So, right under the wire, let's consult Ms. Cleo's crystal ball and offer a few predictions about the Rip City's year to come.

In short: I've got a bad feeling.

Not so much that the Blazers will be a disgrace or miss the playoffs. At best, though, their wheels essentially will spin. At worst, however, those wheels could fall straight off. But before we plum the depths let's find the center.

Vegas has the Trail Blazers' over/under hover at 49 wins, which sounds about right. But let's put than number into perspective.

Last year Portland went 54-28--that's five wins better than they're project to be this season. Yet, the Blazers are returning almost an identical roster. Thirteen of Portland's 15-man team--including all five starters--were on the teams last year.

So, what gives?

Last year the Blazers were remarkably fortunate. They got off to an incredibly hot start, winning an improbable 24 of their first 29 games. Also, their starting five lost the fewest number of games to injury in the entire NBA. That's a really big deal, especially for a team with a short a bench as the Blazers.

Portland's luck continued into the postseason as they drew the most favorable matchup, Houston, and as Damian Lillard's buzzer-beating three avoided a seventh game on hostile turf. It's hard to imagine the Blazers get so lucky again. And that's where the wheels could begin falling off.

Not in the way where atrocious, unexpected losses start piling up. As long as the Blazers aren't hit with some wicked injury to one or more starters, they ought to win somewhere in the range of 40-odd games.

But without the fortune, allow me to spin an alternate--and I fear--somewhat probably universe.

The Blazers withstand an injury or two and win in the upper-mid 40's. They get a gnarly draw and are blasted from the first round of the playoffs. Then LaMarcus Aldridge's contract expires. Somebody makes him an offer, and A) it's a team with a brighter future or B) he's sick of Portland/looking for a fresh start, that he takes it.

Here's another, even scarier sub-alternative universe: Wesley Matthews and/or Robin Lopez play well this year and command more than their strong-value salaries from other teams and the Blazers either A) sign them back for too much money, hamstringing future growth or B) loose two starters. It's almost damned if you do, damned if you don't...

Now, let's get back to Aldridge, because I've got one more worry left: that, because he's in a contract year, the Blazers organization are willing to let him get away with whatever, to cater too much to his beta personality, and everybody gets burned by it. In other words: they don't call him out on his weaknesses, or push him to play the way they want.

But perhaps all of this doom and gloom could be summed up more succinctly: I think the Trail Blazers are good, a playoff team in the west, but a team whose present and future roadmap to an NBA Championship is totally, structurally restricted.

Now, finally, there remains a ghost in the machine. His name is Damian Lillard.

Lillard will inevitably take some kind of backseat this season as the organization pines over Aldridge in desperate attempts to re-sign the productive but competitively lacking power forward.

But this is Lillard's team.

Aldridge might be the engine, but Lillard's the fifth gear--the one who can take them over the top and, perhaps, even become the catalyst to lure that third All-Star free agent to Portland.

Ok--now I'm getting ahead of myself. So let's make a prediction.

I combed the schedule, game by game, month by month, and came up with 48 wins--just under Vegas' prediction. In other words: Portland is good enough to make the playoffs but lacking the talent and depth to make any real noise.

Instead of the postseason, however, the 2015 offseason will be what really defines the Trail Blazers for years to come.

How they perform this year, though, will determine the seeding.