How Portland’s Growing Population Will Affect Its Public Schools

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Thursday, April 16, 2015

Rebecca Randall, GoLocalPDX Contributor

School enrollment is booming in Portland schools as projections by Portland State University estimate 13 percent more students by the 2028-29 school year. 

As enrollment lines trend upward in Portland Public Schools, a district-wide committee is rethinking boundary changes for the fall 2016 school year due to lack of space for a growing student population. This might mean reopening closed schools, said Christine Miles, Portland Public Schools spokesperson. “Whenever there is a projection of more student enrollment we have to take a look at whether our schools have capacity,” said Miles.

This is the fifth consecutive year of enrollment growth preceded by 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses between 1996-97 and 2008-09. Interestingly, that does not coincide with the overall population growth of the residents living within the school district boundaries—total population has been going up since about 1980. 

Enrollment was around 45,000 in 2008-09. This year, enrollment stands at about 48,500. Most of that growth has been at the elementary level, while high school grades have yet to rebound.

Now on the brink of a fresh chance to decide where students will attend to school—with the possibility to address uneven enrollment and inequality—it wasn’t very long ago that some district families experienced a school closure. The district made the decision to close Marshall High School in 2011 and redraw boundaries for its feeder schools. High schools closures have only been felt once before in the district in the 80s during an enrollment dip. In 2013, the district also consolidated Chief Joseph Elementary and Ockley Green K-8.

Additionally, the school district may have to re-consider how it is spending its $482 million building improvement bond, which passed voter approval in 2012, said Miles. 

This summer, the school district plans to begin rebuilds of Franklin and Roosevelt high schools and demolish Faubion PreK-8 for complete replacement. Grant High School will be rebuilt beginning in 2017, and many other schools will receive maintenance updates and seismic upgrades. Some of the money will also fund planning phases for rebuilds of Lincoln, Benson and Madison high schools.

“We’d hate to overbuild or underbuild,” said Miles. 

These decisions hinge on forecasts by Portland State University’s Population Research Center, which calculates enrollment projections annually. The last one came out in 2014 and is based on historical data through 2013. It makes projections through the 2028-29 school year. 

While this is the 15th consecutive year of forecasts from PSU’s Population Research Center, the last four years have proven more accurate than earlier projections. Initially, the center had predicted declining enrollment until 2011-12, but enrollment actually declined only until 2008-09. 

Its projections are made by grade-level as well as by high school cluster—which include all the elementary and middle feeder schools. The school forecasts assume no changes to boundaries for the 15-year horizon—something that will likely change through the boundary review process. 

In the last five years, the Cleveland, Grant and Lincoln high school clusters have increased the most—each gaining between 12 and 14 percent in student population.

Over the next 15 years, the Lincoln and Wilson high school clusters are projected to increase between 21 and 22 percent. All high school clusters are projected to grow, however, with Madison having the lowest growth rate of 7 percent over 15 years.

PSU considered a variety of factors to make its projections, including housing projections, birth rates and migration patterns. 

Ultimately, the report implies that migration is the biggest factor in enrollment boosts. During the 2000s, there was more migration to Portland than in the 90s. The inflow of young adults moving to Portland in the 2000s is estimated at 48,000, offset by about 31,000 (from all age groups) who left, resulting in a net gain of 17,000. This is a similar pattern to the 90s only on a slightly bigger scale.

PSU’s medium-scenario projection anticipates a net gain of even more people than in previous years, meaning about 42,000 more people could live within the district boundaries by 2030. 

Birth rates have also picked up from the mid-90s to the mid-2000s, which is having some impact. Previously, they had dropped rather drastically. For example, for children entering kindergarten between 2003-2006, there were 36 to 38 percent fewer births five years earlier (between 1998 and 2001). This reversed in 2007.

There will also be a slight increase in kindergarteners this fall when Oregon begins its first year of full-day tuition-free kindergarten.

Another factor that appears to play a role in birthrate changes and ultimately seems to benefit Portland Public Schools is the age at which women are having children. In 2012, the median age women were having children was 32.3; in 1995, it was 28. “The living arrangements of residents who have children at an older age are likely to be more established,” said the report, which concludes that older women are not moving once they have their children. In previous years, young adults who rented in the urban center moved to other parts of the metro as their children grew.

Available housing still plays a role, though Portland Public Schools has historically had fewer students per household than suburban areas. Families living in single-family homes built since 2003 include only about .40 children under 10. Older single-family homes, apartments, condos, duplexes and triplexes have fewer children.

Looking at the future, the next wave of development is likely to have mostly one-bedroom or smaller market-rate apartments, and PSU expects very few students to live in them.

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