Does Anyone Stand A Chance Against Mayor Hales?

Thursday, June 04, 2015

GoLocalPDX News Team

Portland Mayor Charlie Hales

The mayoral election is still 17 months away, but current Portland Mayor Charlie Hales’s campaign is already up and running. After announcing his official candidacy in March, state records show Hales has already collected over $80,000 dollars in cash contributions since January. Without a single opponent challenging him in sight, the race against Mayor Hales appears somewhat decided.

But the Mayor is facing the challenge of a city not always on his side. Some of his decisions in office have been applauded, such as support for homeless enclaves in Portland. Others, such as his flip-flopping opinion on the proposed fuel pipeline in North Portland and the failed Street Fee proposal, received loud criticism.

Even with an uncertain support from residents, however, a rival candidate beating an incumbent is almost unheard of in Portland.

“The last time anyone beat someone was in 1992, and that was Charlie Hales,” said Kari Chisholm, a Democratic political consultant and President of Mandate Media, an internet strategy consulting group based in Portland. “People are definitely wary of challenging an incumbent.”

With his local name-recognition, his campaign’s head-start, or his ever-increasing donation coffers, Mayor Hales appears to be on his way to taking the 2016 election. But that hasn’t stopped some residents from speculating on who might challenge him within the next few months.

Whispers of Potential Challengers

The mayoral race is currently a party of one, but experts have pinpointed a few local politicians who have a chance of not only running, but unseating, Mayor Hales.

Top of the list of is Congressman Earl Blumenauer, whose experience representing Oregon’s 3rd district, including most of Portland, dates back to 1996.

“I would say the strongest potential candidate, without question, is [Blumenauer],” Chisholm said. “It’s no secret he loves local government, and even in Congress he has been all about supporting cities. If he were to run, I would peg him as a favorite. He would make it.”

Joining him on the list is State Treasurer Ted Wheeler, who some expected to run for governor in 2018 but will likely not do so as Kate Brown is expected to finish out resigned Governor Kitzhaber’s term.

“I would not be at all surprised to see Ted Wheeler run, because he is someone who could unite Portland’s business community and its progressive base,” Chisholm said. “I think Wheeler [defeating Hales] is absolutely doable.”

In what could be good news for Wheeler’s supporters, the treasurer’s office did not give a definitive answer either way.

“The treasurer is considering his options,” said Michael Cox, a spokesperson for treasurer Wheeler. “He has not ruled anything in or out at this time.”

Other potential candidates who have been whispered about include Commissioners Nick Fish, Amanda Fritz, and Dan Saltzman, who have more than three decades of experience working for Portland City Council between them. Each of them could continue holding their seats while running if they chose to.

Fans of Fish, however, are unlikely to see him run this term.

"Officially, for me, I'm not a candidate for mayor," Nick Fish said Wednesday. "While it's flattering to be put in the mix, I have no current plans to run for mayor."

A Controversial Track Record

Though experts say he has the advantage of being an incumbent, Mayor Hales could see some backlash as the race heats of for some of the more controversial decisions he has made during his first term. His flip-flopping stance on the Pembina pipeline, a proposed propane export facility to be built at the Port of Portland, is one of the most recent and most controversial.

Mayor Hales originally supported the Canada-based Pembina Pipeline Corp. when it announced its $500 million project in North Portland in September. The rest of Portland seemed hotly divided on the proposal, however.

The Audubon Society of Portland quickly launched a campaign to block the proposal, saying that the facility would “put our communities and our environments at risk.”

“Our communities will be put at risk, not only by the huge blast zone surrounding the facility, but also by a huge increase in explosive propane moving through the Portland area by boat and rail,” the Audubon Society said, adding that the proposal would not be in accordance with the city’s Climate Change Action Plan. “Portland does not want this propane facility.”

In response to the widespread criticism of the proposal, Mayor Hales announced in May that he was withdrawing his support of the pipeline, citing thousands of calls and e-mails from his office had received in opposition to the project.

Oregon State Treasurer Ted Wheeler

But while his change of position appeased environmentalists, including the Audubon society, it caused the community of Portland business supporters to go up in arms.

“We are extremely disappointed that the mayor has abruptly closed the door on the Pembina propane export facility, the largest private investment ever proposed in the city of Portland,” said Sandra McDonough, president and CEO of the Portland Business Alliance following Hales’s announcement.

McDonough pointed out that the project was projected to generate $12 million in tax revenue annually, along with creating 800 construction jobs during its two-year construction period and 40 additional permanent jobs at the facility.

“When investments like Pembina’s are flatly refused, it sends a message to other companies that Portland is not open for business,” she added.

The Portland Business Alliance, which represents more than 325,000 business people throughout Oregon and Washington, could be a powerful ally for any mayoral candidate. So far, however, the organization has remained silent on Hales’s decision to run.

“We don’t have anything on that yet,” said Valerie Cunningham, Communications Director at the Portland Business Alliance.

Voices of Support Coming Forward

The support for Mayor Hales is stronger in some communities than other.

“I would absolutely love to see Charlie Hales stay for another term,” said Michael Withey, a long-time advocate for the homeless and founder of Micro Community Concepts, a Portland non-profit that creates affordable housing in the city.

“I’ve been working on low income housing for a year now, and the last mayor didn’t help much, and a lot of the other people who were running for mayor seemed indecisive,” Withey said. “[Hales] has been on the forefront of this, and I would hate to see him leave.”

Withey mentioned Hales’s support of Right 2 Dream Too, a controversial homeless camp built on private property in downtown Portland in 2011.

“This unique community is doing valid work in a special way that no government agency ever thought of,” Hales said in a public testimony in 2013.

“Not a lot of other politicians are willing to do that,” Withey said. “He’s willing to sacrifice politically for the homeless. I think he has done an amazing job so far, so I look forward to him continuing as mayor.”

Related Slideshow: 7 Things the Mayor Could Do by Reorganizing City Hall

Here are some things a reshuffle might do for Portland Mayor Charlie Hales.

Prev Next

7. Shake up the Bureau Directors

While commissioners come and go, the directors are in charge of their bureaus in the long term. Bringing all the bureaus under his control during the budgeting process would force the directors to answer to the Mayor, if only for a short time. This move would send a strong message to the bureaucracy that the Mayor, in fact, is in charge.

Prev Next

6. Change the Staffing

In the past, some Mayors took over the bureaus and reshuffled their staff, most notably, the directors. Mayor Tom Potter and others have used bureau reshuffles to oust directors and other staff.

Prev Next

5. Realign Bureaus with Commissioners' Interests

Each Commissioner has his or her own strengths and interests. Amanda Fritz has always been passionate about neighborhoods, while Nick Fish is equally focused on housing. Giving the Office of Neighborhood Involvement back to Fritz and the Housing Bureau back to Fish might build political capital.

Prev Next

4. Reset Relationships

It would take significant negotiating with commissioners to execute a reshuffle smoothly. The Mayor would have an opportunity to rebuild alliances or work to align commissioners with his vision of a city council that functions more like a board of directors than a gang of mini-mayors.

Prev Next

3. Take Over The Bureau of Transportation

Hales' boldest play would be to take the Bureau of Transportation for himself. While it lays the responsibility of the Portland Street Fee squarely on his shoulders, if he is successful, Hales could claim victory over an issue that has vexed him since he was on City Council more than a decade ago.

Prev Next

2. Look Like A Strong Mayor

While most Portlanders don’t pay much attention to City Hall intrigue, if the Mayor appears to be cleaning house, it’s bound to earn points with some voters.

Prev Next

1. Get into Position for Year Three

If the Mayor successfully pulls off a reshuffle, he could end up in a stronger political position. If he decides to run for re-election, the move would come just in time for this year’s critical window for political fundraising.