Big Money, Ballot Measures Boost Voter Registration Numbers to Historic High

Email to a friend Permalink

Monday, October 27, 2014

Shelby Sebens, GoLocalPDX Reporter

Intriguing ballot measures, population growth and aggressive voter mobilization efforts are driving record high voter registration numbers this election season, political experts say. 

Voter registration numbers are the highest they have been for a midterm election since at least 1998 and are nearly as high as the 2012 presidential election. Voter registration was 2,193,295 this election compared to 2,068,798 in 2010, according to the Oregon Secretary of State's Elections Division.  

And political experts say big money could be driving some of the increase.

“There’s more money in elections,” Political Director, DHM Research and Director of the Early Voting Information Center Paul Gronke said. “A lot of campaign finance is used for voter mobilization.”

The Republican National Committee is spending over $100 million on elections this time around, taking a cue from the successful voter drives of the Obama campaign in 2008 and 2012, Gronke said. 

“If the RNC is dedicating money, you know some of these independent entities are probably spending money in that way as well,” he added. 

But Democrats still have an edge in Oregon with 831,432 registered voters compared to the Republican’s 656,794. 

Some experts say the uptick in voter registration can be attributed to Oregon’s growth. Oregon’s population, about 3.9 million people, increased by over 35,000 people from July 2012 to July 2013, according to Portland State University’s Population Research Center. 

“If you’ve got an increased population you’ve got a greater pool of voters,” said Tim Hibbitts, founder and chief political analyst of DHM Research in Portland, Seattle and Washington D.C. 

Pot, Food and the Youth  

Political experts say it’s more likely that the ballot measures are bringing more voters to the table than the races for Governor or U.S. Senate. Though the governor’s race has been high profile in the past few weeks, the saga over Kitzhaber's fiancee erupted toward the end of voter registration, which ended Oct 15. 

The initiative to legalize, tax and regulate marijuana and the measure to label Genetically Modified Organisms are most likely bringing out more voters, and younger voters, Gronke said. 

“We’re kind of behind the times all of a sudden,” Gronke said, adding there’s an urgency on the part of some to catch up. 

The ballot measures are also bringing in huge amounts of money into the anti-GMO labeling, pro-legal weed and pro-top two primary measures.

But whether the ballot measures or the all of a sudden excitement in the governor’s race translates to higher voter turnout this election remains to be seen. 

“I don’t know that it’s been radically altered in terms of interest and enthusiasm among voters,” Hibbitts said. “Up to now we’re not finding that this election has really energized voters in a big way.” 

Still Lackluster 

Hibbitts said Oregon could actually see a low voter turnout despite the high registration numbers. 

“I would actually say, in terms of degree of interest in this election, that up to now it’s probably lower than we’ve seen it in other elections,” he said. 

Oregon and Washington, along with some Midwest states, typically do well in terms of registration for Midterm elections, Hibbits said. Couple that with Oregon’s growth and he thinks there’s not much to the high voter registration numbers. 

“This is a historical pattern in Oregon,” he said. 

Compared to other states, Oregon is better than average when it comes to political knowledge and enthusiasm. But compare the citizens of today to 50 years ago and voters are more ambivalent, Hibbitts said. 

“I think there is less belief now that government and politics makes a difference in people’s lives,” he said. “I think people are just overwhelmed with information and have other things to do and politics doesn’t come up very high.” 

As of Friday, 9.6 percent of the ballots statewide had been returned, with Wasco County leading the pack at just over 16 percent. 

---

Related Slideshow: The Eight Political Types

Related Articles

• Oregon’s Biggest Ballot Measure Contributions and The People Who Made Them
• Third Parties Divided Over Top Two Primary Initiative

Enjoy this post? Share it with others.

Email to a friend Permalink